Issue No. 160 | 10 April 2024 | Susann Heinecke-Kuhn
After Ukraine applied for EU membership in March 2022 and was granted candidate status in December 2023, the negotiations over its EU accession are supposed to start in the course of this year. Despite the speedy first steps, Ukraine will have to undergo the same procedure of accession negotiations as any other EU candidate country. This paper looks into the particular challenges and risks of Ukraine’s EU accession and gives an outlook on the tasks lying ahead for both the EU and Ukraine.
Issue No. 159 | 14 March 2024 | Frédéric Lépine
Since the end of the 19th century, Catalonia has always resisted attempts at political and administrative centralisation in Spain. This policy paper note aims to present the historical context of this resistance, while describing in more detail the events that led to the Catalan independence process and its failure in 2017. It sheds light on the current situation, where a legislative agreement between the Spanish government and the Catalan parties could lead to a legal and political redefinition of Catalonia's autonomy.
Issue No. 158 | 5 March 2024 | Jean-Claude Vérez
The world is set to undergo a major demographic transformation by 2100. Contrary to the traditional Malthusian perspective, the main challenge will not be population growth, but population ageing. This is already the case in several major countries, and it is important to examine how this demographic shift could reshape both macroeconomic and microeconomic equilibria.
Issue No. 157 | 24 January 2024 | Aysenur Alma
In her Policy Paper, Aysenur Alma gives an overview of the state of play of the upcoming EU AI Act within the legislative process. Since the Commission's proposal in April 2021, the proposal has undergone the ordinary legislative procedure. Last month, a provisional agreement was achieved in the trilogue negoations of the Parliament and the Council. Moreover, the final text has been sent to the member states. Thus, a final adoption is soon to be accomplished. The regulation is not only awaited within Europe but is also expected to have extra-territorial reach.
Issue No. 156 | 15 January 2024 | Rachel Guyet
The energy price crisis in the winter 2022-2023 acted as a wake-up call for the European institutions to reform the electricity market in order to stabilise the prices and shield consumers from price volatility. The provisional reform agreement concluded by the Council and the Parliament in December 2023 improves the protection of final consumers, including the vulnerable consumers and households exposed to energy poverty. This is a step in the right direction but more needs to be done to address inequalities in the access to affordable energy services for all.
Issue No. 155 | 8 December 2023 | George N. Tzogopoulos
This essay attempts to offer an overview of how the EU responded to the Israel-Hamas war in its first weeks. In so doing, it explains that the initial unequivocal support for Israel after the terrorist attack of 7 October 2023 was followed by a more nuanced stance that focused attention on the Palestinian drama. It subsequently demonstrates why disagreements among member states came to the forefront in a phase during which Israel was waging war to eradicate Hamas at huge cost to numerous Palestinians living in the Gaza Strip. The essay discusses several European priorities amid hostilities and argues that the general analysis of the EU's stance cannot ignore the complexity of the Israel-Palestinian conflict as a whole.
Issue No. 154 | 1 December 2023 | Marie Müller
The policy brief gives an overview of the recent movements inside the EU institutions in regard to the Commission’s Proposal for the Nature Restoration Law. Since then, the Proposal has undergone the ordinary legislative procedure. The Law just survived the trilogue negotiations of the Parliament and the Council, and is, therefore, one step closer to its entry into force. Nevertheless, the Commission’s ambitions have been partially lost over the process, and it is not clear yet if the Law, in its current stage, will still be able to fulfill its purpose. Namely to reverse biodiversity loss by coordinated and stringent restoration measures.
Issue No. 153 | 19 October 2023 | Laurent Baechler
The Stability and Growth Pact (SGP), adopted in 1997, established fiscal rules that euro area countries are required to follow in order to prevent excessive divergences in public deficits and debt from triggering destabilising spillover effects across the monetary union. The rules essentially set a threshold of 3% of GDP for public deficits and 60% of GDP for public debt, which member states are expected to respect. They were suspended in March 2020 following the outbreak of the COVID-19 crisis, in accordance with the rules themselves, which allow for their suspension under exceptional circumstances that prevent compliance with the thresholds. This suspension was subsequently extended due to the impact of the war in Ukraine on member states’ public finances. The rules were expected to be reinstated from January 2024. However, the conditions for their application have been profoundly altered by the impact of the past four years on the fiscal situation of the countries concerned. This paper examines the proposed reforms to these fiscal rules and the debates surrounding them.
Issue No. 152 | 20 September 2023 | Christian Manahl
West Africa has experienced a series of military coups and growing Russian influence, mostly through the Wagner security group, with Niger being the latest and perhaps most critical example, as it is the cornerstone of the European Union’s security strategy in the Sahel and a crucial country in terms of managing trans-Saharan migration flows. In the context Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian expansionism in the Sahel could turn the subregion into a new frontline of the hybrid geopolitical conflict between Russia and the West. The way the crisis in Niger is resolved will be indicative of how this dynamic plays out.
Issue No. 151 | 11 July 2023 | Kristijan Ležaić
On 1st of July this year, Croatia, the youngest European Union member state celebrates 10 years of membership in the EU. In the first decennial anniversary of membership, this small Mediterranean Country gradually achieved remarkable success in crossing the various stages of integration and on 1st January 2023 gained membership of both the Eurozone and Schengen area, something that was never achieved in the history of the EU, to attain these two important milestones on the same day. Due to its dedication and achievements, Croatia can be seen as a true European success story as it has come a long way from a war torn Country fighting for independence in the 90s, to a poster child of European integration only 30 years later. Today, Croatia is one of the 15 Countries in the world, which are at the same time members of the EU, NATO, Schengen and Eurozone.
Issue No. 150 | 3 July 2023 | Loris Petrini
This article provides a brief synthesis of the Beyond Growth conference to highlight the diffusion of post-growth narratives within EU institutions. This landmark multi-stakeholder event, born as a cross-party initiative of 20 MEPs from five political groups, was held in the European Parliament in May 2023. The debates gathered scholars, members of civil society and policymakers around a common plea to ensure socio-ecological prosperity by shifting away from GDP growth. In the context of the European Green Deal, it sought to openly challenge conventional policymaking and build pathways to offer a good life for all within planetary boundaries.
Issue No. 149 | 26 June 2023 | Arne Ellerbeck
Effective climate action and policy is currently not politically possible, as politicians face strong resistance from various societal groups and in some cases even have to fear for their re-election when adopting ambitious legislation. In order to achieve the 2030 targets and bring the planet on a trajectory on which we can limit climate change to 1.5°C this problem needs to be addressed. This can be conceptualised as the need to shift the Overton Window, which describes what is politically possible at a given moment in time. For this purpose two options exist, the proposed solutions are more attractive and the sentiment in the general public becomes more favourable. Both levers can be addressed through a diverse coalition consisting of actors ranging from companies to youth activists. Together these groups can reduce the hostility in the discourse around climate action, develop a common understanding and attractive solutions. The unique character of this coalition has the potential to elicit changes in how climate action is thought about in the general public and among political decision-makers. A crucial piece to this coalition is the youth climate movement which possess a unique credibility and legitimacy. However, this movement is highly complex, vast and does not exist as a single actor. In order to overcome these challenges, this policy brief offers a potential definition of what the climate youth movement is, based on a generational aspect and the psychological/sociological concept “opinion/value group”. Furthermore, a coarse categorisation of youth groups is presented based on the size and the level which the group is aiming to exert their impact. The objective is to deliver some initial guidance to support other actors in finding suitable partners among youth groups, with the aim to collaborate in shifting the Overton Window.
Issue No. 148 | 12 June 2023 | Katharina Sigwald
Violent extremist attacks have risen over the last decade, while algorithms on Internet platforms have played a vital role in enforcing extremist ideologies and worldviews. The European Union has issued offline regulations to combat extremism on the Internet, like the Radicalisation Awareness Network (RAN), the EU’s Security Union strategy 2020-2025, and the 2020 Counter-Terrorism Agenda. European Council conclusions for online providers include the awaited Digital Services Act package (DSA/DMA) which aims to create a safer digital environment for users, as well as the introduction of the European Centre for Algorithmic Transparency (2023), seeking to facilitate the implementation of the DSA/DMA. The Digital Services Act package is perceived as an important step in the right direction, though it has been greeted with some scepticism concerning its impact and applicability.
Issue No. 147 | 1 June 2023 | Ryszard Piasecki
The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine can be a chance for the Europeans to build their strategic value for NATO on their home turf. Today, Central Europe is naturally the centre point of Europe’s security. Only armies developed in close cooperation with NATO guarantee security. In the case of Poland, the ongoing senseless conflict with the EU - including Germany - contradicts the Polish raison d’état. Seen from the perspective of Central Europe, a common European defence and the transatlantic alliance are both necessary for their security.
Issue No. 146 | 20 May 2023 | Florent Marciacq
The invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation last year has imposed new geopolitical realities on the European continent. It has shattered illusions that hard security challenges can be offset by soft power and market integration alone, exposed key vulnerabilities in European security, bolstered transatlantic cooperation, hit European economies and reshaped the political geography of EU enlargement. The war has put European nations to a massive test, and it is fair to say that unity has prevailed at the most critical moment. Yet, the war has not extinguished key divergences on strategic issues. These continue to run deep, behind the front of European unity. To make sure that countries in Europe board the same boat in their crossing of geopolitical storms, a European political community (EPC) was established in Prague on 6 October 2022. The 40+ participating states, gathered on this occasion, identified 7 priorities, one of which was… youth cooperation. An ambitious flagship initiative focusing on school connectivity and pupils’ mobility would give the EPC substance, identity and the strategic depth required to address the European challenges that are ready to surge under still waters.
Issue No. 145 | 10 May 2023 | George N. Tzogopoulos
China’s stance in the Ukraine conflict has generated lively debate. The country stresses its neutrality, but the West doubts its sincere motivations. China does not agree with the policy of sanctions against Russia and looks at the war from the prism of its own interests. In so doing, it strives to achieve a balance between the maintenance of good relations with Russia and the preservation of a degree of cooperation with the USA and the EU. It is also proposing some solutions to end hostilities which reflect its own strategic thinking. A good understanding of this strategic thinking will perhaps help Western policymakers set realistic goals in what to expect from the Chinese government as long as the war in Ukraine persists.
Issue No. 144 | 3 May 2023 | Christian Manahl
The partnership between the world’s two major authoritarian regimes is reason for serious concern, but it is the consequence, not the cause, of tensions that have been building up for years already. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine a year ago marks a turning point in international relations, the end of the post-Cold War era and possibly the beginning of a new Cold War between the democratic West and an authoritarian East which is bound in an alliance of convenience. However, Russia’s military setbacks, the invasion’s impact on the global economy, and the risk of a nuclear escalation run counter to China’s interests. Beijing sticks to Moscow out of geopolitical opportunism, but it may use its influence to mitigate the risk of an escalation and perhaps bring an opening for a diplomatic settlement, following Xi Jinping’s trip to Moscow earlier this year. The outcome of this China’s “peace initiative” will depend essentially on Ukraine’s own assessment of its chances for an outright military victory or of the risks of protracted hostilities that would exhaust its resources.
Issue No. 143 | 14 April 2023 | Rachel Guyet
Energy policies in Europe are embedded in the three dimensions of the so-called energy trilemma, for which the World Energy Council publishes an index every year. The current energy crisis has impacted all three dimensions of the trilemma putting at the core of the European strategies the security of supply, including the accelerated deployment of renewable energies, and the issue of affordability. The paper examines whether the emergency measures taken meet the conditions of just transition put forward in the European Green Deal.
Issue No. 142 | 27 March 2023 | Mohamed Kerrou
Once in power, the Tunisian populism embodied by President Kais Saied has proved hesitant and lacking in substance when it comes to governance. To address this, it is essential to foster an environment of trust and avoid confrontation with the country’s main trade union, which remains a key pillar of civil society.
Issue No. 141 | 8 March 2023 | George N. Tzogopoulos
The war in Ukraine is challenging the international order. The EU has responded by getting closer to the US within NATO. The allies are attemtping to support Kyiv and stop the advancement of Russian military forces. The EU has provided critical support to the Ukrainian people and has made impressive steps to guarantee its energy security and maintain its resilience. However, perspectives for peace are rather poor. The hard reality is leading the EU to evaluate different scenarios, although it cannot be the protagonist in the conflict. In a changing world, the EU needs to place more emphasis on its strategic autonomy and be more flexible in welcoming Ukraine to its family.
Issue No. 140 | 27 February 2023 | Jean-Claude Vérez
Le vieillissement démographique est une réalité avec à la clé des personnes agées dépendantes. La prise en charge de la perte d'autonomie peut relever des politiques publiques. Les besoins de financement sont substantiels.
Issue No. 139 | 19 December 2022 | Laurent Baechler
La COP27 a confirmé les difficultés de la communauté internationale à progresser sur les trois dimensions du changement climatique : la réduction des émissions, l’adaptation et la gestion des pertes et dommages. Les avancées en matière de mitigation et d’adaptation sont restées limitées, tandis que la principale réussite de la conférence a été la reconnaissance du principe de financement des pertes et dommages pour les pays les plus vulnérables. La COP27 souligne ainsi la nécessité de renforcer les efforts d’adaptation et la coopération financière internationale face à l’aggravation des impacts climatiques.
Issue No. 138 | 14 November 2022 | George N. Tzogopoulos
This essay analyses the current status of Sino-European relations. While trade remains the driving force, disagreements on human rights, on the war in Ukraine and on dealing with the pandemic are at the epicentre of attention. The European Union is subsequently encountered with a critical dilemma on how to respond to new challenges and accordingly shape its approach towards China. While the empowerment of transatlantic relations is a natural development in the current world order, especially after 24 February 2022, the EU needs to prepare different scenarios about the future and assess the future impact of Sino-American antagonism on its interests.
Issue No. 137 | 2 November 2022 | Rudolf d'Avenna
Russia’s mobilisation, the attempted illegal annexation of Ukrainian territories, renewed nuclear threats, and the intensified attacks against Ukraine’s energy facilities represent a serious escalation of the aggression against Ukraine. At the same time, Ukraine’s offensives into areas which Russia now considers as its own raises the spectre of a tactical nuclear response, if the regime in Moscow feels threatened by a defeat of the Russian army. This situation requires a strategic response taking into account immediate threats, the possible long-term presence of a hostile neighbour on Europe’s eastern border, and the need to assist countries in the Global South facing a triple crisis of food insecurity, surging energy prices, and financial instability.
Issue No. 136 | 18 October 2022 | Philipp Brugner and Martin Fleischer
On 6 October 2022 the inaugural meeting of the European Political Community (EPC) took place with the attendance of all invited 44 heads of government. The Paper looks into the origins of the EPC, explores its further course against the background of various co-operation frameworks and agreements between the EU and its neighbours but also bilateral tensions, the array of areas for future partnerships, and related governance aspects.
Issue No. 135 | 6 September 2022 | Arnaud Leconte
This paper discusses how Europe is facing the new geopolitical landscape in terms of European economic governance at a time when the twin effects of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine are spreading rapidly far and wide. The historic tectonic shift of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 is exacerbating significant political and economic policy challenges in an increasingly fragmented world. The concept of open strategic autonomy and the Green Deal policies guiding Europe’s economic governance now have to deal with the weak integration of European fiscal and capital markets at a time of high inflation and threats of recession. Another important factor is the reality of strong trade inter-dependencies in the context of weaponised food, energy and money. In this historically exceptional moment the EU may need to go for broke, using all means possible: the crisis is a test of resilience where the EU can find the unexpected opportunity to reinforce its cohesion, while the global system becomes increasingly polarised and divided. Forged in times of crisis, Europe should make sure that the multilateral framework that has lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty is not dismantled.
Issue No. 134 | 11 July 2022 | Jean-Claude Vérez
La pandémie a impacté la population mondiale à des degrés divers. Les populations les plus pauvres et vulnérables sont particulièrement touchées. Les pays en développement, notamment les moins avancés dont la majorité sont localisés en Afrique, ne sont pas en mesure pour la première fois depuis 20 ans de lutter contre la pauvreté monétaire.
Issue No. 133 | 22 June 2022 | Michel-Henry Bouchet
The IMF keeps preaching generous debt reduction across the board without clear governance conditionality, hence generating moral hazard that boils down to providing blank checks for corrupt elites. For many of the eligible countries, debt problems stem from bad governance, including a combustible mix of corruption, unabated capital flight, bad prioritization of spending, and poorly designed fiscal and monetary policies. Without a strict governance enforcement framework, external debt cancellation will only keep encouraging institutionalized kleptocracy. The international civil servants should shift their priorities toward funding closely monitored development projects, together with on the ground NGOs, to make sure that aid-related official financing directly contributes to improving local populations’ well-being.
Issue No. 132 | 10 June 2022 | Tobias Flessenkemper
The European Union has declared 2022 as the European Year of Youth. For more than a century now young people and the concept of youth have played an important role in the imagination of international, European and national politics. This paper analyses elements of the political genealogy of European youth cooperation over the last hundred years: starting from Brussels in 2022, through Strasbourg in 1972 back to Geneva in 1922. Further work on the genealogy of youth policy in Europe will help to develop ideas for the future international youth cooperation.
Issue No. 131 | 23 May 2022 | Jeffrey Lu
The recent war between Ukraine and Russia has shown to the world that the future of energy security and supply is a tenuous construct, and bad actors have the power to dramatically change the status quo. Europe now has major concerns for its future energy security due to its dependence on centralised energy sources despite the growing need to decarbonise, and more importantly, the ideological and political differences between singular governments.
This year, the G7 Summit is led by the Germany and will be hosted from the 26th to 28th of June at Schloss Elmau in the Balvarian Alps. Countries within the G7 have realised there needs to be significant increases in renewable energy capacities to both gain energy security, and to decarbonise their energy mix.
This policy paper discusses how sustainable investments in countries with strong renewable energy potential will help build strong alliances and help transform the energy landscape. This paper also discusses how the values of a 'Just Transition' is required for mutual benefit of countries around the world. This policy paper also proposes that the Summit needs to champion the concrete actions that is urgently required to help both developed and developing nations to realise their renewable energy potential and to establish hydrogen infrastructure for the future economic trade of clean energy. Ultimately, a cornerstone of the G7 Presidency needs to focus on the sustainable financing of renewable and green hydrogen projects are required to achieve energy security, economic stability, and climate goals.
Issue No. 130 | 6 May 2022 | Matthias Waechter
Three preliminary conclusions on the French presidential elections of April 2022: Emmanuel Macron will face tough debates with his European counterparts, if he wants to see his visions for the EU finally implemented. The French Left is more alive than expected, but must find its way back to unity. Economic progress alone will not defeat the Extreme Right: Only a reform of the political system can reconcile the French with liberal democracy.
Issue No. 129 | 1 May 2022 | András Inotai
The paper examines the 2022 Hungarian parliamentary elections and the structural factors behind FIDESZ-KDNP’s renewed two-thirds majority. It argues that electoral-system distortions, unequal media access, voter registration practices, and unequal voting conditions contributed to an uneven political playing field. The author also highlights the role of polarising political discourse and the exploitation of the war in Ukraine during the campaign. More broadly, the paper questions the EU’s response to Hungary’s democratic backsliding and calls for a clearer distinction between economic interests and the protection of European democratic values.
Issue No. 128 | 11 April 2022 | Martin Fleischer
In December 2021, the European Union unveiled its €300 billion Global Gateway programme, a strategic framework for the many players in development finance to pull together in a very complex and competitive global risk environment. The paper discusses the elements on which the EU can draw, how the programme fits into important trends in development finance, and that the rising power China should not be viewed through black and white glasses when it comes to Road and Belt financing.
Issue No. 127 | 15 February 2022 | Théophile Galloy
The situation in Ukraine is testing the NATO alliance and European policymakers, who in an effort to weigh-in on the crisis, have resorted to the old trick of sending weapons. This case allows us to reflect on the appeal of lethal aid and its effects on international relations. The logic that rules such arms transfers is presented here through examples from history and theoretical literature on the topics of International Relations, game theory and violence.
Issue No. 126 | 1 February 2022 | Michel-Henry Bouchet
Could the pandemic crisis be the outpost of an unprecedented structural shock on already weak countries? It might then create a “precipitation” of accumulated institutional and structural weaknesses to trigger a systemic shock, a sort of dreadful crystallization, i.e., state collapse. Many economies had pre-existing vulnerabilities, which are now intensifying, representing potential headwinds to any sustainable and inclusive recovery. The irony is that globalization, a sort of echo chamber, triggered a pernicious spillover effect. But in the meantime, the crisis makes that globalization is reaching its end. In a world of lower volumes of trade, capital and migration flows, and cultural integration, protectionism and nationalism can accelerate the process of state failure. Identifying which weak states are prone to fail might be an opportunity for reassessing EU’s concerted development aid for those few countries that show genuine commitment to good governance.
Issue No. 125 | 20 January 2022 | Merve Samalp
During the Cold War, the space sector was largely shaped by the rivalry between the United States and the Soviet Union, with technological developments serving their respective strategic and military objectives. From the 1990s onwards, the emergence of a multipolar world led new states to enter the space sector. However, the arrival of these new actors had only a limited impact on the structure of the sector. It was not until the emergence of private actors that the space sector, which had until then been dominated by state monopolies, underwent a profound transformation.
Issue No. 124 | 15 December 2021 | Eda Bülbül
Marking the second year of establishing Just Transition Fund, this policy paper presents the current challenges the Commission and the Member States face while developing Territorial Just Transition Plans.
Issue No. 123 | 1 December 2021 | Rachel Guyet
The new energy price crisis has dramatic consequences on vulnerable consumers. It is questioning the ability of the EU to coordinate emergency measures to alleviate the burden of the price hike in the short term but also to better address social justice in the long term within the framework of its decarbonisation policy.
Issue No. 122 | 9 November 2021 | Herman Van Rompuy
Unity. Solidarity. Democracy. European Autonomy. Future.
In his inaugural lecture delivered online on 9 November 2021, Herman Van Rompuy, President Emeritus of the European Council, Belgian Minister of State and President of CIFE, reflects upon some of the core values of the European Union.
Issue No. 121 | 15 October 2021 | Hartmut Marhold
The paper contrasts two dominant narratives shaping international relations: the Cold War paradigm of conflict between human societies and the emerging paradigm of humanity’s relationship with the planet. It argues that traditional geopolitical thinking remains focused on power struggles between states and ideologies, while climate change requires a systemic approach centered on planetary limits and cooperation. The concept of sustainable development attempts to bridge these perspectives, but has struggled to replace the dominant Cold War framework. The paper concludes that addressing the climate crisis requires a fundamental shift in international thinking from human-versus-human conflict toward global cooperation and planetary sustainability.