Whither Sino-European Relations?, George N. Tzogopoulos
Résumé :
This essay analyses the current status of Sino-European relations. While trade remains the driving force, disagreements on human rights, on the war in Ukraine and on dealing with the pandemic are at the epicentre of attention. The European Union is subsequently encountered with a critical dilemma on how to respond to new challenges and accordingly shape its approach towards China. While the empowerment of transatlantic relations is a natural development in the current world order, especially after 24 February 2022, the EU needs to prepare different scenarios about the future and assess the future impact of Sino-American antagonism on its interests.
Confronting a New Phase in Russia’s Aggression, Rudolf d'Avenna
Résumé :
Russia’s mobilisation, the attempted illegal annexation of Ukrainian territories, renewed nuclear threats, and the intensified attacks against Ukraine’s energy facilities represent a serious escalation of the aggression against Ukraine. At the same time, Ukraine’s offensives into areas which Russia now considers as its own raises the spectre of a tactical nuclear response, if the regime in Moscow feels threatened by a defeat of the Russian army. This situation requires a strategic response taking into account immediate threats, the possible long-term presence of a hostile neighbour on Europe’s eastern border, and the need to assist countries in the Global South facing a triple crisis of food insecurity, surging energy prices, and financial instability.
The European Political Community: Some Post-Meeting Thoughts, Philipp Brugner and Martin Fleischer
Résumé :
On 6 October 2022 the inaugural meeting of the European Political Community (EPC) took place with the attendance of all invited 44 heads of government. The Paper looks into the origins of the EPC, explores its further course against the background of various co-operation frameworks and agreements between the EU and its neighbours but also bilateral tensions, the array of areas for future partnerships, and related governance aspects.
The European Union’s Economic Governance of the (Post-) Pandemic and the War, Arnaud Leconte
Résumé :
This paper discusses how Europe is facing the new geopolitical landscape in terms of European economic governance at a time when the twin effects of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine are spreading rapidly far and wide. The historic tectonic shift of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 is exacerbating significant political and economic policy challenges in an increasingly fragmented world. The concept of open strategic autonomy and the Green Deal policies guiding Europe’s economic governance now have to deal with the weak integration of European fiscal and capital markets at a time of high inflation and threats of recession. Another important factor is the reality of strong trade inter-dependencies in the context of weaponised food, energy and money. In this historically exceptional moment the EU may need to go for broke, using all means possible: the crisis is a test of resilience where the EU can find the unexpected opportunity to reinforce its cohesion, while the global system becomes increasingly polarised and divided. Forged in times of crisis, Europe should make sure that the multilateral framework that has lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty is not dismantled.
L'impact de la crise sanitaire sur la pauvreté monétaire dans le monde, Jean-Claude Vérez
Résumé :
La pandémie a impacté la population mondiale à des degrés divers. Les populations les plus pauvres et vulnérables sont particulièrement touchées. Les pays en développement, notamment les moins avancés dont la majorité sont localisés en Afrique, ne sont pas en mesure pour la première fois depuis 20 ans de lutter contre la pauvreté monétaire.
Here It Goes Again! The IMF’s Call for Urgent Debt Reduction requires a Governance Framework, Michel-Henry Bouchet
Résumé :
The IMF keeps preaching generous debt reduction across the board without clear governance conditionality, hence generating moral hazard that boils down to providing blank checks for corrupt elites. For many of the eligible countries, debt problems stem from bad governance, including a combustible mix of corruption, unabated capital flight, bad prioritization of spending, and poorly designed fiscal and monetary policies. Without a strict governance enforcement framework, external debt cancellation will only keep encouraging institutionalized kleptocracy. The international civil servants should shift their priorities toward funding closely monitored development projects, together with on the ground NGOs, to make sure that aid-related official financing directly contributes to improving local populations’ well-being.”
The European Year of Youth 2022 - Aspects of a Genealogy of European Youth Cooperation, Tobias Flessenkemper
Résumé :
The European Union has declared 2022 as the European Year of Youth. For more than a century now young people and the concept of youth have played an important role in the imagination of international, European and national politics. This paper analyses elements of the political genealogy of European youth cooperation over the last hundred years: starting from Brussels in 2022, through Strasbourg in 1972 back to Geneva in 1922. Further work on the genealogy of youth policy in Europe will help to develop ideas for the future international youth cooperation.
Renewable Energy and Hydrogen Investment as a Means for Energy Security and New Political Alliances: A Policy Paper for the German G7 Presidency, Jeffrey Lu
Résumé :
The recent war between Ukraine and Russia has shown to the world that the future of energy security and supply is a tenuous construct, and bad actors have the power to dramatically change the status quo. Europe now has major concerns for its future energy security due to its dependence on centralised energy sources despite the growing need to decarbonise, and more importantly, the ideological and political differences between singular governments.
This year, the G7 Summit is led by the Germany and will be hosted from the 26th to 28th of June at Schloss Elmau in the Balvarian Alps. Countries within the G7 have realised there needs to be significant increases in renewable energy capacities to both gain energy security, and to decarbonise their energy mix.
This policy paper discusses how sustainable investments in countries with strong renewable energy potential will help build strong alliances and help transform the energy landscape. This paper also discusses how the values of a 'Just Transition' is required for mutual benefit of countries around the world. This policy paper also proposes that the Summit needs to champion the concrete actions that is urgently required to help both developed and developing nations to realise their renewable energy potential and to establish hydrogen infrastructure for the future economic trade of clean energy. Ultimately, a cornerstone of the G7 Presidency needs to focus on the sustainable financing of renewable and green hydrogen projects are required to achieve energy security, economic stability, and climate goals.
Three Takeaways from the French Presidential Elections, Matthias Waechter
Résumé :
Three preliminary conclusions on the French presidential elections of April 2022: Emmanuel Macron will face tough debates with his European counterparts, if he wants to see his visions for the EU finally implemented. The French Left is more alive than expected, but must find its way back to unity. Economic progress alone will not defeat the Extreme Right: Only a reform of the political system can reconcile the French with liberal democracy.
The Global Gateway, Martin Fleischer
Résumé :
In December 2021, the European Union unveiled its €300 billion Global Gateway programme, a strategic framework for the many players in development finance to pull together in a very complex and competitive global risk environment. The paper discusses the elements on which the EU can draw, how the programme fits into important trends in development finance, and that the rising power China should not be viewed through black and white glasses when it comes to Road and Belt financing.
Arming Ukraine, Understanding the Benefits and Risks of Arms Transfers, Théophile Galloy
Résumé :
The situation in Ukraine is testing the NATO alliance and European policymakers, who in an effort to weigh-in on the crisis, have resorted to the old trick of sending weapons. This case allows us to reflect on the appeal of lethal aid and its effects on international relations. The logic that rules such arms transfers is presented here through examples from history and theoretical literature on the topics of International Relations, game theory and violence.
Protracted Pandemic Crisis = Risk of Great Collapse for Weak States? - An Opportunity for Reassessing EU's Development Aid to Promote Good Governance, Michel-Henry Bouchet
Résumé :
Could the pandemic crisis be the outpost of an unprecedented structural shock on already weak countries? It might then create a “precipitation” of accumulated institutional and structural weaknesses to trigger a systemic shock, a sort of dreadful crystallization, i.e., state collapse. Many economies had pre-existing vulnerabilities, which are now intensifying, representing potential headwinds to any sustainable and inclusive recovery. The irony is that globalization, a sort of echo chamber, triggered a pernicious spillover effect. But in the meantime, the crisis makes that globalization is reaching its end. In a world of lower volumes of trade, capital and migration flows, and cultural integration, protectionism and nationalism can accelerate the process of state failure. Identifying which weak states are prone to fail might be an opportunity for reassessing EU’s concerted development aid for those few countries that show genuine commitment to good governance.
Entre commercialisation et arsenalisation : l'émergence de nouveaux enjeux spatiaux, Merve Samalp
Résumé :
Durant la guerre froide, le secteur spatial était structuré par les affrontements entre les États-Unis et l'URSS et les développements technologiques étaient mis au service de leur belligérance. A partir des années 1990 et l'émergence d'un monde multipolaire, de nouveaux États ont pénétré le marché spatial. Pourtant, l'arrivée de ces nouveaux acteurs n'a que très peu modifié le secteur. Ce n'est réellement qu'à partir de l'arrivée d'acteurs privés que le domaine spatial, qui était jusque-là fondé sur des monopoles d’États, a été profondément bouleversé.
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