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N°135

The European Union’s Economic Governance of the (Post-) Pandemic and the War, Arnaud Leconte

Résumé :

This paper discusses how Europe is facing the new geopolitical landscape in terms of European economic governance at a time when the twin effects of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine are spreading rapidly far and wide. The historic tectonic shift of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 is exacerbating significant political and economic policy challenges in an increasingly fragmented world. The concept of open strategic autonomy and the Green Deal policies guiding Europe’s economic governance now have to deal with the weak integration of European fiscal and capital markets at a time of high inflation and threats of recession. Another important factor is the reality of strong trade inter-dependencies in the context of weaponised food, energy and money. In this historically exceptional moment the EU may need to go for broke, using all means possible: the crisis is a test of resilience where the EU can find the unexpected opportunity to reinforce its cohesion, while the global system becomes increasingly polarised and divided. Forged in times of crisis, Europe should make sure that the multilateral framework that has lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty is not dismantled.

Arnaud LEconte Crisis Ukraine Europe 2022

N°134

L'impact de la crise sanitaire sur la pauvreté monétaire dans le monde, Jean-Claude Vérez

Résumé :

La pandémie a impacté la population mondiale à des degrés divers. Les populations les plus pauvres et vulnérables sont particulièrement touchées. Les pays en développement, notamment les moins avancés dont la majorité sont localisés en Afrique, ne sont pas en mesure pour la première fois depuis 20 ans de lutter contre la pauvreté monétaire.

Jean Claude Verez Pauvrete Crise sanitaire CIFE 2022

N°133

Here It Goes Again! The IMF’s Call for Urgent Debt Reduction requires a Governance Framework, Michel-Henry Bouchet

Résumé :

The IMF keeps preaching generous debt reduction across the board without clear governance conditionality, hence generating moral hazard that boils down to providing blank checks for corrupt elites. For many of the eligible countries, debt problems stem from bad governance, including a combustible mix of corruption, unabated capital flight, bad prioritization of spending, and poorly designed fiscal and monetary policies. Without a strict governance enforcement framework, external debt cancellation will only keep encouraging institutionalized kleptocracy. The international civil servants should shift their priorities toward funding closely monitored development projects, together with on the ground NGOs, to make sure that aid-related official financing directly contributes to improving local populations’ well-being.”

Michel Henri Bouchet CIFE IMF 2022

N°132

The European Year of Youth 2022 - Aspects of a Genealogy of European Youth Cooperation, Tobias Flessenkemper

Résumé :

The European Union has declared 2022 as the European Year of Youth. For more than a century now young people and the concept of youth have played an important role in the imagination of international, European and national politics. This paper analyses elements of the political genealogy of European youth cooperation over the last hundred years: starting from Brussels in 2022, through Strasbourg in 1972 back to Geneva in 1922. Further work on the genealogy of youth policy in Europe will help to develop ideas for the future international youth cooperation.

Flessenkemper Tobias CIFE CoE European Year of Youth 2022

N°131

Renewable Energy and Hydrogen Investment as a Means for Energy Security and New Political Alliances: A Policy Paper for the German G7 Presidency, Jeffrey Lu

Résumé :

The recent war between Ukraine and Russia has shown to the world that the future of energy security and supply is a tenuous construct, and bad actors have the power to dramatically change the status quo. Europe now has major concerns for its future energy security due to its dependence on centralised energy sources despite the growing need to decarbonise, and more importantly, the ideological and political differences between singular governments.
 
This year, the G7 Summit is led by the Germany and will be hosted from the 26th to 28th of June at Schloss Elmau in the Balvarian Alps. Countries within the G7 have realised there needs to be significant increases in renewable energy capacities to both gain energy security, and to decarbonise their energy mix.
 
This policy paper discusses how sustainable investments in countries with strong renewable energy potential will help build strong alliances and help transform the energy landscape. This paper also discusses how the values of a 'Just Transition' is required for mutual benefit of countries around the world. This policy paper also proposes that the Summit needs to champion the concrete actions that is urgently required to help both developed and developing nations to realise their renewable energy potential and to establish hydrogen infrastructure for the future economic trade of clean energy. Ultimately, a cornerstone of the G7 Presidency needs to focus on the sustainable financing of renewable and green hydrogen projects are required to achieve energy security, economic stability, and climate goals.

Jefrey Lu Hydrogen renewable Energy CIFE Alumni

N°130

Three Takeaways from the French Presidential Elections, Matthias Waechter

Résumé :

Three preliminary conclusions on the French presidential elections of April 2022: Emmanuel Macron will face tough debates with his European counterparts, if he wants to see his visions for the EU finally implemented. The French Left is more alive than expected, but must find its way back to unity. Economic progress alone will not defeat the Extreme Right: Only a reform of the political system can reconcile the French with liberal democracy.

Matthias Waechter Director General Historian French Elections Presidence

N°128

The Global Gateway, Martin Fleischer

Résumé :

In December 2021, the European Union unveiled its €300 billion Global Gateway programme, a strategic framework for the many players in development finance to pull together in a very complex and competitive global risk environment. The paper discusses the elements on which the EU can draw, how the programme fits into important trends in development finance, and that the rising power China should not be viewed through black and white glasses when it comes to Road and Belt financing.

Fleischer Martin Global Gateway China Belt CIFE Paper

N°127

Arming Ukraine, Understanding the Benefits and Risks of Arms Transfers, Théophile Galloy

Résumé :

The situation in Ukraine is testing the NATO alliance and European policymakers, who in an effort to weigh-in on the crisis, have resorted to the old trick of sending weapons. This case allows us to reflect on the appeal of lethal aid and its effects on international relations. The logic that rules such arms transfers is presented here through examples from history and theoretical literature on the topics of International Relations, game theory and violence.

Galloy Theophile CIFE Arming

N°126

Protracted Pandemic Crisis =  Risk of Great Collapse for Weak States? - An Opportunity for Reassessing EU's Development Aid to Promote Good Governance, Michel-Henry Bouchet

Résumé :

Could the pandemic crisis be the outpost of an unprecedented structural shock on already weak countries? It might then create a “precipitation” of accumulated institutional and structural weaknesses to trigger a systemic shock, a sort of dreadful crystallization, i.e., state collapse. Many economies had pre-existing vulnerabilities, which are now intensifying, representing potential headwinds to any sustainable and inclusive recovery. The irony is that globalization, a sort of echo chamber, triggered a pernicious spillover effect. But in the meantime, the crisis makes that globalization is reaching its end. In a world of lower volumes of trade, capital and migration flows, and cultural integration, protectionism and nationalism can accelerate the process of state failure. Identifying which weak states are prone to fail might be an opportunity for reassessing EU’s concerted development aid for those few countries that show genuine commitment to good governance.

Michel Henry Bouchet Pandemic Crisis Weak states

N°125

Entre commercialisation et arsenalisation : l'émergence de nouveaux enjeux spatiaux, Merve Samalp

Résumé :

Durant la guerre froide, le secteur spatial était structuré par les affrontements entre les États-Unis et l'URSS et les développements technologiques étaient mis au service de leur belligérance. A partir des années 1990 et l'émergence d'un monde multipolaire, de nouveaux États ont pénétré le marché spatial. Pourtant, l'arrivée de ces nouveaux acteurs n'a que très peu modifié le secteur. Ce n'est réellement qu'à partir de l'arrivée d'acteurs privés que le domaine spatial, qui était jusque-là fondé sur des monopoles d’États, a été profondément bouleversé.

Samalp Merve commercialisation arsenalisation nouveaux enjeux spatiaux CIFE


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