2022
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N°130

Three Takeaways from the French Presidential Elections, Matthias Waechter

Résumé:

Three preliminary conclusions on the French presidential elections of April 2022: Emmanuel Macron will face tough debates with his European counterparts, if he wants to see his visions for the EU finally implemented. The French Left is more alive than expected, but must find its way back to unity. Economic progress alone will not defeat the Extreme Right: Only a reform of the political system can reconcile the French with liberal democracy.

Matthias Waechter Director General Historian French Elections Presidence

N°128

The Global Gateway, Martin Fleischer

Résumé:

In December 2021, the European Union unveiled its €300 billion Global Gateway programme, a strategic framework for the many players in development finance to pull together in a very complex and competitive global risk environment. The paper discusses the elements on which the EU can draw, how the programme fits into important trends in development finance, and that the rising power China should not be viewed through black and white glasses when it comes to Road and Belt financing.

Fleischer Martin Global Gateway China Belt CIFE Paper

N°127

Arming Ukraine, Understanding the Benefits and Risks of Arms Transfers, Théophile Galloy

Résumé:

The situation in Ukraine is testing the NATO alliance and European policymakers, who in an effort to weigh-in on the crisis, have resorted to the old trick of sending weapons. This case allows us to reflect on the appeal of lethal aid and its effects on international relations. The logic that rules such arms transfers is presented here through examples from history and theoretical literature on the topics of International Relations, game theory and violence.

Galloy Theophile CIFE Arming

N°126

Protracted Pandemic Crisis =  Risk of Great Collapse for Weak States? - An Opportunity for Reassessing EU's Development Aid to Promote Good Governance, Michel-Henry Bouchet

Résumé:

Could the pandemic crisis be the outpost of an unprecedented structural shock on already weak countries? It might then create a “precipitation” of accumulated institutional and structural weaknesses to trigger a systemic shock, a sort of dreadful crystallization, i.e., state collapse. Many economies had pre-existing vulnerabilities, which are now intensifying, representing potential headwinds to any sustainable and inclusive recovery. The irony is that globalization, a sort of echo chamber, triggered a pernicious spillover effect. But in the meantime, the crisis makes that globalization is reaching its end. In a world of lower volumes of trade, capital and migration flows, and cultural integration, protectionism and nationalism can accelerate the process of state failure. Identifying which weak states are prone to fail might be an opportunity for reassessing EU’s concerted development aid for those few countries that show genuine commitment to good governance.

Michel Henry Bouchet Pandemic Crisis Weak states

N°125

Entre commercialisation et arsenalisation : l'émergence de nouveaux enjeux spatiaux, Merve Samalp

Résumé:

Durant la guerre froide, le secteur spatial était structuré par les affrontements entre les États-Unis et l'URSS et les développements technologiques étaient mis au service de leur belligérance. A partir des années 1990 et l'émergence d'un monde multipolaire, de nouveaux États ont pénétré le marché spatial. Pourtant, l'arrivée de ces nouveaux acteurs n'a que très peu modifié le secteur. Ce n'est réellement qu'à partir de l'arrivée d'acteurs privés que le domaine spatial, qui était jusque-là fondé sur des monopoles d’États, a été profondément bouleversé.

Samalp Merve commercialisation arsenalisation nouveaux enjeux spatiaux CIFE


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