Le déclin démograpühique de l'Europe à l'horizon 2050 puis 2100, by Jean-Claude Vérez

Abstract:

Since Malthus and Marx, there have been many debates about population growth and its effects. In a more recent context of environmental concerns, neo-Malthusian ideas advocate limiting birth rates in order to control world population growth. On the other hand, Europe is facing a real demographic ageing. And the facts are there: the world population increases when the European population declines. The relative weight of the European population will increase from less than 10% in 2017 to 8.6% in 2030, to 7.3% in 2050 and then to 5.8% in 2100. It will have been noted that this is the population of Europe and not just the European Union of 28 or 27. 
 

To face such constraints + unless the "European social model" is called into question +, several tracks are possible: 1/ Returning to a steady growth rate. 2/ Increase the participation rate of men and women. 3/ Redefine the EU's migration policy. 4/ Welcome new countries with younger populations.

Policy Paper N°83 published on March 8, 2019, only in French - available here